September 29, 2011

Foreign Aid: Virtue or New Colonialism?

A bulk of the literature on foreign aid is centered on a simple question: Does it work?


The assumption of aid having a positive impact on growth remained scientifically almost unchallenged during the 1950s and 1960s. Since the late 1960s, empirical research has dealt with the aid-growth relationship in detail, but the results have been inconclusive. Even the reverse causality (i.e. growth leading to higher ODA flows) cannot be ruled out, because some donors may tend to reward improvements in economic performance. Relying on the existing data, scholars and aid practitioners have roughly three positions with regard to the answer of this question: yes, aid works and it will work better if the amount of aid is increased; no, it doesn’t work, it should be seriously reformed or even abolished completely; and it can work under certain circumstances. However, in this article we focused only on “yes” and “no” and left the third position to be discussed later.

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September 25, 2011

Arab Spring: Why Now?


     In his famous book “Third Wave: Democratization in the late 20th Century”, Samuel Huntington makes a remarkable analysis of democratization processes that took place in the East Europe, Latin America, Asia and Africa between 1970-1990. His analysis is based on five pillars; erosion on legitimacy, increase in global economic growth, new deal in the Catholic Church, domino effect (mainly originates from the disintegration of USSR) and proliferation of democracy championed by the EU and the US. Even though he provided a framework for changes in that era, his thesis is not adequate by itself alone. The basis he built does not help to understand the question why other regions (particularly MENA) which experienced similar developments at that time were not effected and why it is now. 

     Criticism

     Upon this criticism, Alfred Stepan, a political scientist, singled out tribalism (Bedouin culture), a significant part of Arab politics for centuries, as the major setback on the way towards democratization in the MENA region. Stepan describes tribalism with its requirement for obediance to leaders. As he points out, tribes do not have tolerance for criticism and any kind of disruption within the community that could cause harm to hierarchical relations among people. they cherish loyalty and awards priviliges to tribesmen who are loyal to the chief. Tribes are close communities programmed to hide inner problems -be they social or political- so that other tribes do not take advantage of “weaknesses”. The infamous motto of tribal societies is “I am against my brother, my brother and I are against our cousins, our cousins and us are against outsiders”. Bearing in mind this notion, It should also be noted that the modern Arab societies arose from the unficiation of tribes which are now live in metropolitans rather than Saharan Desert. Therefore, people’s decades long endurance to dictators is closely linked to their tribal heritage which prefers obediance over criticism, hierarchy over equality and loyalty over democracy.

     So, what happened now? what has changed in the lives of Bedouin descendants who were once loyal to their “chief”? First, they fed up with dictators (see article). In 1970s, the authoritarian regimes are relatively new phenomena for the people. In a social point of view, there had still time to see the merits and mischieves of dictators. Dictators were given chances. During the last 40 years however, Bedouins have seen that they acted broadly on short-sighted and narrow-minded selfish interests. Secondly, dictators lost their credibilty which was given by a historical Bedouin obedience. This made their legitimacy to wear off. Furthermore, values that are promoted daily by the globalization such as democracy, human rights, equality and freedom have eroded the notion of obedience beyond question. Thirdly, young people who have lived their entire life in cities are not inclined to obey dictators as easy as their parents.


     End of Proximity as an Argument

     In contrast to comply with no objection, young Arabs are shaped by social media which spearheads and signifies criticism and freedom of expression against monologism. Unlike the period analyzed by Huntington, access to information is easier. Between 1990 and 2010, MENA countries -as rest of the world- have also witnessed a groundbreaking turn in information technologies expediting communication to light speed. So, while it was plausible to explain democratization movements by proximity (to Europe or US) particularly in late 1980s, today geographical location has expired as a concrete argument towards democratization.

     To sum up, in MENA, people’s reactions to authoritarian regimes in the last 40 years are able to mobilize organized and meaningful upheavals only in the early 21st century in consequence of the values proliferated by the globalization which young people (living their entire life more integrated to the world than their parents ever did) prefer to embrace against traditional practices. This, in turn, edged the good old fashioned obediance to dictators and farewell to old regimes in the region.


Articles you might also like:
> Arab Spring: Understanding the Reasons
> Anatomy of Upheavals: A Comparison of Greek and Libyan Crises

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September 16, 2011

Anatomy of Upheavals: A Comparison of Greek and Libyan Crises


     Since 2005, average propensity of consume has risen dramatically and household expenditure increased to alarming levels in Greece. Coupled with global financial crisis in 2008, current account deficit of the country driven by huge public and private spending along with high import demand have become serious threats to macroeconomic balances of the country. While Greece’s budget deficit reached at 13.6 percent of the GDP (four times higher than the Euro Zone is allowed) triggering the fear that Greece would default, rating agencies cut country’s rating in June 2011 to the lowest level that markets ever saw in the history of modern economy. As a result, Greece’s economy shrank sharply by 5.5 percent in the first quarter and 6.9 percent in the second quarter of 2011. Amidst the predicament, the government realized a new economic policy (fiscal austerity) program in collaboration with the EU, IMF and World Bank which basically aims at narrowing budget deficit and reducing public debt to managable levels by maximizing savings.

      Economic Crisis vs. Political Crisis
     The new economic program caused huge repercussions among Greek public and wide protests were held in Athens and other big cities of the country. Protesters even encircled the parliament during the events (which were intervened only by the policemen), no casualities were reported. While protests continued, the cabinet headed by the prime minister Yorgo Papandreu (PASOK) was almost entirely changed. In pursuance to the vote of confidence, the new cabinet submitted Medium Term Program to the parliament in June which mainly focuses on the fiscal discipline, cutting public workers’ salaries and minimizing the household expenditure. Immediate election, on the other hand, has became a hot topic not only for the Greek opposition but also for the public as a whole.
     Starting almost in the very same date with Greece (February 15, 2011), the crisis in Libya however, has followed a different route. Employing the means of the army, the Gaddafi Regime has taken drastic action against protesters who were inspired by the Tunisian and Egyptian Revolution. In a month, hundreds of people have lost their lives in the face of intervention by the Libyan armed forces consisting not only of national army but also African mercenaries. During the upheaval, Gaddafi has never acknowledged the demands of the protestors, calling them “terrorists and rats” whom must be “squashed quickly”. Hence he did not take any measure towards reforming the system. It should be also noted that the means of the state (political, military or economic) were used only by the Muammar Gaddafi and his family who do not have any kind of political title whatsoever. Following the worsening plight in the country, the UN authorized (UNSC Resolution 1973) all member countries “to take necessary measures to protect civillians” and as a result NATO engaged airborne operations all over Libya in order to back the opposition which was now organized under the National Transitional Council in Benghazi. Thanks to international support, the opposition captured Tripoli and actually ended Gaddafi regime in August 2011.  

       Rules of Engagement
     Similarities between the two crises are vast. For instance, Libya also experienced economic woes such as unemployment (even though it has never been declared, it is estimated around 25 percent), low income levels in spite of remarkable oil revenue (GDP per capita in Libya 93.00$ whereas 27.000$ in Greece), wide corruption and unfair distribution of income. Furthermore, initial period of protests are also common to some extent. Both protests started as peaceful demonstrations but in time they caused serious financial damages in urban areas due to people’s commitments to continue protests (demonstration, strike, sit down etc.) despite of government’s interventions.
     However they did not end in the same fashion. Such decoupling originates from different types of engagement towards the people. In Greece, protests enforced prime minister to change the cabinet and the cabinet, the Medium Term Economic Program and international bail-outs were all adopted by the Greek parliament. Moreover, all actions taken by the government is in line with the rule of law (at least in theory) and even if it is'nt, calling an immediate elections was still on the table. This will be also valid if and when government’s economic program fails. On the other hand, Libya was ruled not by law but under one man show. Gaddafi did not have political options that would respond people’s demands even if he wanted to give one. There was no parliament or government in the modern sense of the word. Country’s political system is almost entirely lack of political inclusion, feedback and settllement mechanisms. Hence the only thing Gaddafi could do at that time, was to initiate a broad political reform process -including him to step down- which he did not see necessary. Unfourtunately,  in times of conflict political reforms are harder to realize.

    Declaring protestors as terrorists Gaddafi resorted to military tools (contrary of Greek’s resort to police) as if the country was waging war against an exterior enemy which in turn, paved the for his own demise.


Articles you might also like:
> Arab Spring: Why Now?
> Arab Spring: Understanding the Reasons

Leia Mais…