Arab Spring: Why Now?

     In his famous book “Third Wave: Democratization in the late 20th Century”, Samuel Huntington makes a remarkable analysis of democratization processes that took place in the East Europe, Latin America, Asia and Africa between 1970-1990. His analysis is based on five pillars; erosion on legitimacy, increase in global economic growth, new deal in the Catholic Church, domino effect (mainly originates from the disintegration of USSR) and proliferation of democracy championed by the EU and the US. Even though he provided a framework for changes in that era, his thesis is not adequate by itself alone. The basis he built does not help to understand the question why other regions (particularly MENA) which experienced similar developments at that time were not effected and why it is now. 

     Criticism

     Upon this criticism, Alfred Stepan, a political scientist, singled out tribalism (Bedouin culture), a significant part of Arab politics for centuries, as the major setback on the way towards democratization in the MENA region. Stepan describes tribalism with its requirement for obediance to leaders. As he points out, tribes do not have tolerance for criticism and any kind of disruption within the community that could cause harm to hierarchical relations among people. they cherish loyalty and awards priviliges to tribesmen who are loyal to the chief. Tribes are close communities programmed to hide inner problems -be they social or political- so that other tribes do not take advantage of “weaknesses”. The infamous motto of tribal societies is “I am against my brother, my brother and I are against our cousins, our cousins and us are against outsiders”. Bearing in mind this notion, It should also be noted that the modern Arab societies arose from the unficiation of tribes which are now live in metropolitans rather than Saharan Desert. Therefore, people’s decades long endurance to dictators is closely linked to their tribal heritage which prefers obediance over criticism, hierarchy over equality and loyalty over democracy.

     So, what happened now? what has changed in the lives of Bedouin descendants who were once loyal to their “chief”? First, they fed up with dictators (see article). In 1970s, the authoritarian regimes are relatively new phenomena for the people. In a social point of view, there had still time to see the merits and mischieves of dictators. Dictators were given chances. During the last 40 years however, Bedouins have seen that they acted broadly on short-sighted and narrow-minded selfish interests. Secondly, dictators lost their credibilty which was given by a historical Bedouin obedience. This made their legitimacy to wear off. Furthermore, values that are promoted daily by the globalization such as democracy, human rights, equality and freedom have eroded the notion of obedience beyond question. Thirdly, young people who have lived their entire life in cities are not inclined to obey dictators as easy as their parents.

     End of Proximity as an Argument

     In contrast to comply with no objection, young Arabs are shaped by social media which spearheads and signifies criticism and freedom of expression against monologism. Unlike the period analyzed by Huntington, access to information is easier. Between 1990 and 2010, MENA countries -as rest of the world- have also witnessed a groundbreaking turn in information technologies expediting communication to light speed. So, while it was plausible to explain democratization movements by proximity (to Europe or US) particularly in late 1980s, today geographical location has expired as a concrete argument towards democratization.

     To sum up, in MENA, people’s reactions to authoritarian regimes in the last 40 years are able to mobilize organized and meaningful upheavals only in the early 21st century in consequence of the values proliferated by the globalization which young people (living their entire life more integrated to the world than their parents ever did) prefer to embrace against traditional practices. This, in turn, edged the good old fashioned obediance to dictators and farewell to old regimes in the region.


Articles you might also like:
> Arab Spring: Understanding the Reasons
> Anatomy of Upheavals: A Comparison of Greek and Libyan Crises