Israeli President Ehud Olmert has paid a suprise visit to Ankara yesterday, raising eyebrows of international community. After visiting Washington and Brussels, Olmert came to Ankara as for his farewell and appreciation to Turkish government for its recent efforts in the Middle East. However, teher is no room for compacency cos dark clouds may loom on the horizon.Turkish corps diplomatique surely have squeezed a myriad of efforts in a year. It has take the matters in hand in forging a stability belt around the country which is one of the main foreign policy objectives of the state. First, it mediated between Syria and Israel, then Pakistan and Afghanistan. It has acquired a seat, albeit temporary one, in the United Nations Security Council while international community closely following Abdullah Gül’s, the President, visit to Armenia. Furthermore, Foreign Minister Ali Babacan have proposed a Caucasian platform in which countries in the region could engage in talks over long-disputed issues in the aftermath of Georgian war.
Since politics in Middle East are profoundly intertwined, Turkey has also continued to give the utmost importance to the process of neighbouring countries of Iraq which was launched by the Turkey itself in the first place. With Irag enjoying some degree of stability and democracy, the process might have an increased chance to bring about some political and economic outcomes.
Everyone, however, acknowledges that it is easy said than done when it comes to international politics. Equation repletes with different variable, chronic issues and intransigent parties. Israel now lowers its profile in negotiations with Syria which center the disputed Golan Heights region, as general election is due to be held in the next year. Negotiations between Pakistan and Afghanistan do not go any further than good intentions since both are unable to control country’s territory as a whole. Nagorno Karabakh dispute and disruptions of Armenian diaspora still constitute the main impediment on a peaful and durable settlement to the issue which has consumed huge amount of time, efforts and energy of parties.
Yet agressive diplomacy could bear fruitful outcomes both for Turkey and others which are
concerned with the region. Reconciliation of some sort –even a symbolic one- could persuade Iran to step back from its belligerent policies which sometimes mentions total annihilation of Israel. Israel too would be convinced to further ease its hawkish policies –albeit not for Hamas- but for the Palestinian Authority located in the West Bank. Turkey’s normalization of relations with Armenia to some extent could boost the new process intiated by Russia recently between Armenia and Azerbaijan regarding Nagorno Karabakh. A possible settlement in the Caucasus would be in favor of the EU too as the Community could enhance its influence due to Turkey’s active foreign policy and balance the wide impression of “Mother Russia”.Consequences would be more concrete with respect to ensure good neighbourly relations between countries surrounding Iraq. Underpinning democratic process in Iraq and sincere cooperation could help to alleviate scourage of terror which has already caused monumental damage to states in the region. Constructive and reconciliatory approaches might assist Iraq to abolish its identity as a source of Unstability in the Middle East.
It should be conceded that active foreign policies have their risks. Even though the policies pursued by Turkey are broadly pro-Western and has the consent of great powers, there would still be a good chance to aggrieve some actors in international fora. Her moves in the Caucasia might stir up Russia as it did in the latest Georgia war due to the allegations on arms trade with Georgia. Balance between Pakistan and India are too quite sensitive these days, due to the terrorist attack in Mumbai. Close cooperation between Pakistan and Afghanistan might escalate controversy as they are largely recognized as best shelters for global terrorism.
Avoiding repercussions necessitates to take discreet steps towards a so-called stability belt. Let it be an inclusive belt by which none would feel threatened.
